Availability is more than a player name
Minutes, usage, creation, defense and lineup fit influence how an absence is valued. A star returning with a minutes restriction is not the same as full availability.
Official injury designations can change close to tip-off, making capture time essential.
Spread and total can move together
An injury may alter expected scoring, defensive efficiency and the likely margin. Sometimes the spread moves while the total stays stable; sometimes both reprice.
Record the full pair and attached prices. A headline that says the line moved can hide which component changed.
Schedule spots need evidence
Back-to-backs, travel and dense schedules can affect rotation decisions. Historical averages may not transfer cleanly across teams and seasons.
Do not assume every tired team performs worse by the same amount. Verify actual minutes and current rotation context.
Late movement is not a guarantee
A market can correctly react to news while the game still develops differently. Shooting variance, fouls and overtime remain uncertain.
Use late changes to update the evidence record, not to chase a move at any price.